Fails jamaica? What merkel says about the negotiations

Fails jamaica? What merkel says about the negotiations

Where is the touch of the exotic? Or the prospect of social awakening in times of new nationalism? Six weeks after the federal elections, the CDU, CSU, FDP and greens are threatening to get tangled up in the minutiae of various disputes on the way to jamaica. Impatience is already growing in the ranks of some of those who want to form a coalition: there are only six more weeks to go before the members of the greens and FDP, and party conventions of the CDU and CSU, are supposed to decide on the possible coalition agreement for a first black-yellow-green alliance at the federal level.

At least that was the secret plan so far. Chancellor angela merkel (CDU) and the other leaders of the jamaika parties want to achieve a coalition before christmas if at all possible. More than three months without a government capable of taking action – no one in this circle wants to put germany through that in view of the strengthening of the afd in germany and international crises.

20 pages of guidelines

But now things are getting tight. Three weeks dear merkel because of the state election in lower saxony on 15. October will pass before the 20. October the exploratory talks started. Two weeks later, the negotiators presented eight papers on twelve thematic blocks in small and rough groups. It’s a good 20 pages with few concrete guidelines, but full of questions. The next few weeks will see further work on these issues. The documents prove what was already known: this will not be a love match, at most a marriage of convenience, and probably even more a marriage of obligation. Because after the SPD’s rejection of renewed government participation, the only other option would be new elections. And they want the jamaicans even less.

Some of the more than 50 negotiators from the CDU, CSU, FDP and the greens have long had doubts about whether there is enough common ground to form an alliance of purpose. If we continue as we did in the first round of exploratory talks, we will never be ready in time, say some on the fringes of the noble parliamentary society at the reichstag building. So far, there has been no message with which the black-yellow-green coalition can appeal to its own base – and also to the unsettled and disconcerted, from the afd to pegida.

If a government comes into being?

Skepticism is growing even among the optimists on the road to jamaica. It is still possible to have a new government in place by christmas, but that is not certain.
The squabbles, especially between the possible smaller partners – CSU, FDP and the greens – are more likely to be seen as folklore and signals to their own ranks. Alexander dobrindt, wolfgang kubicki, anton hofreiter – these are politicians with a taste for bluster.
In addition, it must be shown to one’s own ranks how difficult it was to reach an agreement in each case. Because it is clear to everyone that the idea of jamaika could hardly trigger much enthusiasm, just as little among the CDU and CSU as among the FDP and the greens. But is it really only theater thunder?
A foretaste of how things could go in a possible four years of government is provided by CSU secretary general andreas scheuer and the jamaicans of schleswig-holstein robert habeck (grune) and kubicki (FDP) – although one might have expected more mutual understanding from the latter in particular because of their alliance at the forde. Because habeck sees the partners in the federal government on the way to a turnaround in agricultural policy, scheuer hollers back: "that’s really schizophrenic." And kubicki accuses the greens of demanding humble gestures from his party: "nothing can thrive in this climate."

Focus on negotiators

Much will depend on merkel, CSU leader horst seehofer, FDP leader christian lindner and grunen negotiators katrin goring-eckardt and cem ozdemir in the coming weeks. They have already met several times in secret meetings, for example to discuss how the rough hurdles on the road to jamaica could be cleared away, for example in immigration, climate or agricultural policy. You know: with almost all topics it is difficult when negotiating in a rough circle. If there are more than 20 people in the room, there is too much tendency to profile oneself – negotiations in smaller specialist groups are more pragmatic.

In the next week and a half to two weeks, the second round of exploratory talks must become much more concrete, negotiators demand. Until 15. Or 16. On november, the leaders of the union, FDP and grunen want to present an exploratory paper in which the path to a coalition is already pretty clearly marked out. The biggest hurdle is 25. November before: then a grunen party congress decides whether formal coalition negotiations should be started at all.

Take skeptics with you

The paper must be well weighed in the end, it says in the ranks of those who want the negotiations to succeed. It is precisely with the key points that one must be specific, so that each side can also find itself in them. At the same time, however, it must also offer enough leeway to take as many skeptics as possible along with them on the road to jamaica. This could be the hour of the chancellor’s negotiating skills.

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she made her first public statement on the exploratory talks on friday and expressed her confidence. She expects further difficult discussions in the coming days. "But I still believe that we can tie the ends together if we moo and make an effort.", said merkel. All sides attest to its highly professional and skilful negotiation skills.

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